Valid 100100Z – 101200Z
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL OK AND VICINITY THROUGH LATE EVENING…
Supercells capable of large hail and isolated damaging winds will be
possible for several more hours tonight, mainly across western into
central Oklahoma. More isolated large hail may occur overnight into
the middle Missouri Valley.
…Western/Central OK Vicinity…
Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing this
evening across the extreme eastern TX Panhandle into southwest OK.
The 00z OUN RAOB showed steep lapse rates above a weak capping
inversion around 850 mb, with another warm layer around 500 mb.
While there have been a few severe thunderstorm warnings across the
region within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 672, these warm layers may
be inhibiting more robust, sustained updrafts and hence, a lack of
reports greater than 1 inch so far this evening. Nevertheless,
favorable shear and MLCAPE approaching 2000 J/kg will support
potential for large hail and isolated damaging winds for a few more
hours this evening as storms track northeast. As storms approach the
I-35 corridor toward 04-05z, weakening is expected.
Elsewhere, the Marginal risk has been slightly adjusted based on
latest hi-res guidance and observed data, but overall forecast
philosophy remains unchanged. As warm advection and a southerly low
level jet increases across the mid-MO Valley overnight, isolated
hail will be possible from elevated thunderstorms.