Valid 090100Z – 091200Z
…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…
…SUMMARY…
While showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue this evening
across New Mexico and into the southern High Plains this evening, a
gradual decrease in coverage and intensity is expected.
…Discussion…
A gradual decrease in intensity of storms has begun across the New
Mexico vicinity, in conjunction with the onset of diurnal cooling.
Expect this trend to continue, though lingering convection is
expected to spread eastward across the southern High Plains with
time.
Overnight, as the short-wave trough crossing the southern Rockies
continues eastward, a developing low-level jet — and resulting
increase in QG forcing — should support new/elevated storm
development across portions of the Kansas and Oklahoma vicinity.
While a few of the strongest storms could produce hail, risk for
hailstones exceeding severe limits appears too low to warrant a MRGL
risk upgrade.
Elsewhere, showers and a few storms will linger over portions of the
Southeast, where severe weather is not expected.
..Goss.. 10/09/2019
$$