Valid 081630Z – 091200Z
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN NM AND FAR WEST TX…
A few storms could produce marginally severe hail and gusty winds
over southern New Mexico later this afternoon and evening.
…Southern NM this afternoon/evening…
In advance of an amplifying northern-stream trough over the interior
Pacific Northwest, a weak southern-stream shortwave trough over the
lower CO River valley will eject eastward across AZ/NM through late
evening. Weak forcing for ascent preceding the trough, in
combination with daytime heating within a plume of low-level
moisture sampled by the 12z El Paso sounding, will support scattered
thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across southern NM.
MLCAPE will approach 1000 J/kg by mid-late afternoon in an
environment with effective bulk shear near 35 kt and 70 kt flow near
anvil level, which will be sufficient for some supercell structures.
The moderate buoyancy with organized storm structures and steep
low-level lapse rates will favor isolated strong outflow gusts and
marginally severe hail as the main threats this afternoon/evening.
…Elsewhere through tonight…
Elevated convection will be possible late tonight across parts of
OK/KS in a strengthening warm advection regime with the midlevel
ejecting east-northeastward from NM. A separate southern-stream
trough will cross the Appalachians today, where weak buoyancy could
support isolated lightning strikes. South of a stalled front in
central FL, a weak MCV will move off the southeast FL coast this
morning, with the associated primary threat for thunderstorms
likewise spreading offshore.