Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 081300Z – 091200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO…

…SUMMARY…
A few storms could produce small to marginally severe hail and gusty
winds over southern New Mexico later this afternoon and evening.

…Southern New Mexico…

Morning observations show low-level dewpoints generally in the 40s
to around 50F over southern New Mexico. Areas of diabatic heating of
the boundary layer is expected today along with mid-level lapse
rates steepening to between 7 and 8 C/km, supporting up to 1000 J/kg
MLCAPE. A low-amplitude shortwave trough now over western AZ should
reach NM later this afternoon and early evening. Storms are expected
to develop over the higher terrain and in association with deeper
forcing for ascent associated with the shortwave trough. This
feature will also be accompanied by somewhat stronger winds aloft
with 30-40 kt effective bulk shear. This suggests a few updrafts
might develop modest mid-level rotation which (along with the
thermodynamic environment) could augment the threat for small to
marginally severe hail from late afternoon into mid evening.

..Dial.. 10/08/2019

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