Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 081200Z – 091200Z


Scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Appalachians
to Florida today, as well as over much of New Mexico, and then later
across the southern high Plains into parts of Kansas/Oklahoma. A
storm or two may produce small hail or gusty winds over New Mexico.

Evolution of the upper flow field over the U.S. toward a western
trough/eastern ridge configuration will continue today, as a potent
trough digs steadily southeastward across the northwestern quarter
of the country, and the broader/surrounding cyclonic flow field
expands to encompass the entire western half of the country by
Wednesday morning.

At the surface, a cold front will linger over the Florida Peninsula,
while in the West, a much stronger front shifts southeastward ahead
of its parent upper system. By early Wednesday, this front should
extend from the northern Plains southwestward into the Great Basin.

Showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast over portions of the
Southeast, near and to the cool side of the remnant Florida front,
as a weak short-wave trough crosses the Appalachians. Meanwhile,
showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop in a
low-instability environment over the New Mexico vicinity during the
afternoon, ahead of a fast-moving mid-level impulse ejecting
eastward out of the southwestern states toward the central and
southern Plains, ahead of the main western trough. While flow aloft
will be sufficient for fast-moving convection, instability should
prove insufficient for any appreciable severe risk. A few of the
stronger cells may produce gusty winds and small hail over the New
Mexico area, before diminishing/shifting east into the evening.

..Goss/Nauslar.. 10/08/2019


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