Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 071200Z – 081200Z


Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected Monday from the
Mid-Atlantic States into south Texas. Severe thunderstorms are not

An upper level trough — consisting of an initially phased northern-
and southern-stream feature — will move across the eastern U.S.
today. With time, the northern feature is forecast to move more
quickly east, across eastern Canada and the northeastern U.S., while
the southern-stream trough is expected to move more slowly across
the Mid South region and into the Southeast. Meanwhile farther
west, a larger/more potent trough is progged to dig
south-southeastward across western Canada, approaching the
northwestern portion of the U.S. by the end of the period.

At the surface, a cold front preceding the western upper trough,
will move southeastward in conjunction with the upper system,
shifting across the Pacific Northwest and parts of Montana/Idaho
through the second half of the period. With respect to
thunderstorms however, a trough moving southeast across the eastern
half of the country will be the more significant feature. Showers
and scattered thunderstorms are expected in the vicinity of this
front, as it shifts steadily eastward/southeastward. However, with
only modest CAPE expected across most of the warm sector, and
limited shear with southward extent, severe weather is not expected.

..Goss/Nauslar.. 10/07/2019


Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.