Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 062000Z – 071200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
TEXAS INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY…

…SUMMARY…
Isolated damaging gusts and marginally severe hail will be possible
this afternoon/evening from the Ark-La-Tex to the Mid-South.

No changes were made to the existing Marginal Risk area. Storms will
continue to form near the front where the air mass is destabilizing,
especially from eastern OK into AR. While shear profiles are not
very strong, lightly veering winds with height ahead of the boundary
may support a couple east/southeast moving cells capable of hail or
wind.

..Jewell.. 10/06/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2019/

…Ark-La-Tex to the Mid-South this afternoon/evening…
A positive tilt midlevel trough will move generally eastward from
the central High Plains to the middle MS Valley by early Monday, as
an associated surface cold front moves slowly southeastward today
across southeast OK/AR/TN. Surface heating south of the front and
ongoing elevated convection will result in moderate buoyancy ranging
from MLCAPE of 1500 J/kg across western TN to 2500 J/kg in southeast
OK, with surface-based thunderstorm development expected along the
front by mid afternoon. The stronger flow aloft and deep-layer
vertical shear will lag to the cool side of the front, which
suggests that multicell clusters will be the main storm mode.
Still, there will be enough vertical shear along the boundary from
western AR into southeast OK to support low-end supercells for a few
hours late this afternoon/evening. Isolated damaging gusts and
marginally severe hail will be the main threats.

$$

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