Valid 061200Z – 071200Z
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS/SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA EAST-NORTHEAST TO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA…
Showers and thunderstorms are likely from the Ohio Valley into the
Southern Plains on Sunday. Storms capable of marginally severe wind
gusts and hail are possible from northeast Texas to the Tennessee
An upper trough will gradually move across the central U.S., with an
eastern Pacific and a western Atlantic ridge flanking this system.
Within the broader troughing, one short-wave feature is forecast to
continue north-northeastward toward Hudson Bay, while a second
sweeps east-southeastward out of the Rockies and across the central
Plains, and later the Ozarks and mid Mississippi/lower Ohio Valleys.
As this second short-wave trough advances, reinforcement of a
surface cold front — initially extending from the Great Lakes to
north Texas — is expected. By the end of the period, this front
should extend from New England to the Texas Coast/far western Gulf.
…Northeast Texas east-northeast to the Tennessee Valley area…
A moist pre-frontal airmass is progged to moderately destabilize
during the day, in conjunction with diurnal heating. This will
support an increase in convection in the vicinity of the front, with
the most substantial storms expected from Texas to the Tennessee
With that said, stronger flow aloft is progged to remain generally
to the cool side of the front, and as such, only modest warm-sector
shear is expected. This should tend to limit the overall severe
risk. Still, a few of the stronger storms may become capable of
locally gusty/damaging winds, and/or marginal hail. Potential
should be maximized during the afternoon/early evening, but may
linger locally into the overnight hours, as convective coverage
continues to increase with the approach of the aforementioned upper
system approaching from the west.