Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 052000Z – 061200Z


Isolated large hail and damaging gusts are possible this
afternoon/evening along the I-44 corridor across central/northeast

Only minor changes to the general thunder line were made for this
update. A threat of isolated strong storms may develop near the cold
front over parts of northeast OK as heating and destabilization
persist. The passing of the lead wave to the north over MO suggests
only isolated storm coverage for the Marginal Risk area. For more
information see forthcoming MCD 2055.

..Jewell.. 10/05/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2019/

…Central/northeast OK this afternoon/evening…
A midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from the Dakotas/NE
to the upper MS Valley by tonight, accompanied by a surface low that
will develop northeastward across western/northern MN through this
evening. Elevated convection has been focused this morning in a
band of low-level warm advection/ascent from eastern KS to IA, ahead
of a surface cold front now moving southeastward across eastern KS
and into northern OK. A narrow zone of stronger surface
heating/destabilization is expected from central OK into northeast
OK to the south and west of the persistent clouds/elevated
convection and ahead of the surface cold front this afternoon, where
boundary-layer dewpoints will be in the mid-upper 60s F. Moderate
buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg) and effective bulk shear of
30-35 kt along the southern fringe of the stronger midlevel flow
will support the potential for a few organized/marginal supercell
storms along the front this afternoon/evening. Isolated large hail
and damaging gusts will be the main threats from about 21-01z.


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