Valid 051630Z – 061200Z
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK…
…SUMMARY…
Isolated large hail and damaging gusts are possible this
afternoon/evening along the I-44 corridor across central/northeast
Oklahoma.
…Central/northeast OK this afternoon/evening…
A midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from the Dakotas/NE
to the upper MS Valley by tonight, accompanied by a surface low that
will develop northeastward across western/northern MN through this
evening. Elevated convection has been focused this morning in a
band of low-level warm advection/ascent from eastern KS to IA, ahead
of a surface cold front now moving southeastward across eastern KS
and into northern OK. A narrow zone of stronger surface
heating/destabilization is expected from central OK into northeast
OK to the south and west of the persistent clouds/elevated
convection and ahead of the surface cold front this afternoon, where
boundary-layer dewpoints will be in the mid-upper 60s F. Moderate
buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg) and effective bulk shear of
30-35 kt along the southern fringe of the stronger midlevel flow
will support the potential for a few organized/marginal supercell
storms along the front this afternoon/evening. Isolated large hail
and damaging gusts will be the main threats from about 21-01z.
..Thompson/Elliott.. 10/05/2019
$$