Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 051300Z – 061200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS/SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS…

…SUMMARY…
Isolated strong to severe storms capable of producing hail and
strong wind gusts are possible this afternoon from east-central
Oklahoma into southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri.

…Eastern KS and central and eastern OK into southwest
MO/northwestern AR…
Early today, a couple of briefly stronger storms could occur across
eastern Kansas near the east/southeastward-advancing cold front.
However, severe storms are unlikely given weak mid-level lapse rates
and relatively weak mid-level winds per 12Z regional observed
soundings.

Farther south, a somewhat more favorable environment for strong to
severe thunderstorms should materialize this afternoon across
southeast Kansas and central Oklahoma into southwest Missouri and
eventually northwest Arkansas. Adequate buoyancy for stronger
updrafts will coincide with supercell-favorable wind profiles.
Severe hail and locally damaging winds will be possible with the
strongest storms.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 10/05/2019

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