Valid 051200Z – 061200Z
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA…EASTWARD TOWARD THE OZARKS…
Isolated strong to severe storms capable of producing hail and
strong gusts are possible during the day Saturday from central
Oklahoma to far southwest Missouri.
A fast-moving short-wave trough will shift into/across the
north-central U.S. through the first half of the period, before
crossing the Upper Great Lakes and shifting into Canada overnight.
In conjunction with this trough, a surface cold front is forecast to
shift east across the northern and central Plains into the Great
Lakes/Midwest, and southeast into the southern Plains and mid
Mississippi Valley through the period. This front will be a focus
for shower/thunderstorm activity through the period.
…Southeastern KS/central and eastern OK into southwestern
As a cold front sweeps southeastward across the Plains, showers and
isolated thunderstorms are expected to accompany the boundary.
While meager CAPE is expected along much of the length of the
boundary, a moist boundary layer will combine with diurnal heating
to result in modest pre-frontal CAPE over the southern Plains and
Ozarks vicinity — thus supporting a few stronger storms. Aided by
modest shear, these cells may become capable of producing gusty
winds and hail — mainly from late morning through late afternoon.
As such, a 5%/MRGL risk area will be maintained across this region.