Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 031200Z – 041200Z


A few storms with gusty winds might occur later this afternoon from
eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania, and vicinity. Overall threat
appears marginal.

…Eastern Ohio through western Pennsylvania…

Shortwave trough now over the northern Plains will deamplify as it
moves through the Great Lakes and crests the upper ridge centered
over the Southeast States. This feature will be accompanied by a
cold front that will move through the OH Valley during the day. By
late this afternoon this front should extend from a weak surface low
in western PA southwest into the southern Plains. Preceding the cold
front, a stalled front located from central PA westward into the OH
Valley should begin to move north. A narrow corridor of weak
instability (500-800 J/kg MLCAPE) is expected in pre-frontal warm
sector from eastern OH into western PA during the late afternoon
where a few thunderstorms might develop along the cold front.
Activity will be embedded within moderate to strong winds in the
700-300 mb layer. However, the thermodynamic environment with weak
(5.5 – 6 C/km) mid-level lapse rates and a marginal, skinny CAPE
profile will serve as a limiting factor for a severe threat.
Moreover the deeper forcing accompanying the shortwave trough will
remain north of the warm sector. Though a few storms (should they
develop) could pose a risk for locally strong wind gusts, overall
threat appears very marginal.

..Dial/Nauslar.. 10/03/2019


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