Valid 021200Z – 031200Z
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE MID MS VALLEY…
…SUMMARY…
A low severe threat will be noted with storms that develop from
portions of the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley.
…TX Panhandle – Illinois…
Strong mid-level trough will progress across the northern/central
Rockies into the Plains by 03/00z as 90kt 500mb speed max translates
into northwestern NE. Southern influence of this trough will glance
the central Plains with negligible height falls expected south of
the I-70 corridor. As a result convection that develops along a
slow-moving surface front, draped from northern MO – southeast KS –
northwest OK, will be driven primarily by frontal convergence and
boundary-layer heating. With a dominant upper high centered over the
southeastern US, continued deep, moist trajectories across the
southern High Plains into the mid MS Valley will ensure layered
clouds and precip within the frontal zone. This will limit surface
heating such that lapse rates will remain somewhat marginal. Even
so, scattered thunderstorms should develop by 20-21z then track
northeast, aided in part by a weak southwesterly LLJ. Any storms
that form within the narrow high-PW air mass (1.75-2″) could produce
isolated severe wind gusts, or perhaps marginally severe hail.
..Darrow/Cook.. 10/02/2019
$$