Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 020100Z – 021200Z

…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST KS
TO LOWER MI…

…SUMMARY…
Strong to severe storms are expected to continue this evening from
northeast Kansas to lower Michigan.

…KS to MI…

Weak mid-level disturbance embedded within a deep moist plume is
ejecting across northeast KS at roughly 40kt. This feature appears
to be partly responsible for robust convection along a narrow
corridor extending across northwest MO – southern IA – WI/IL border.
00z sounding from DVN exhibits SBCAPE on the order of 1900 J/kg with
ample shear for sustained rotating updrafts. While embedded
supercells are certainly possible ahead of the weak short wave,
multiple storm mergers within a broader precip shield should limit
tornado potential. Even so, isolated damaging winds remain possible
ahead of any bow-type structures or line segments, and a brief
tornado or two can not be ruled out.

..Darrow.. 10/02/2019

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