Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 010100Z – 011200Z

…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS…

…SUMMARY…
Isolated large hail and damaging gusts remain possible this evening
across parts of the upper Mississippi Valley. A greater risk for
hail is expected across portions of Nebraska.

…01z Update…

Scattered thunderstorms have developed along pronounced front from
the Arrowhead of MN – MSP – Martin County MN, near the IA border.
This activity is struggling to attain severe levels, much in line
with earlier CAMs regarding updraft strength/intensity. Even so, 00z
sounding from MPX exhibits substantial SBCAPE with 50kt sfc-6km
shear. Environmental parameters remain favorable for severe with
this frontal activity; however, convective trends lend uncertainty
regarding the severity of this activity over the next few hours.

Farther southwest across NE, much higher confidence exists regarding
the potential for severe. Numerous thunderstorms, some
supercellular, have developed within 50mi north of the front. Hail
algorithm suggests much of this activity is producing hail and with
LLJ expected to strengthen into north-central KS later this evening,
a continuation of elevated strong/severe is expected. Will add 15%
severe for hail with these storms.

..Darrow.. 10/01/2019

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