Valid 300100Z – 301200Z
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
INTO WESTERN MN…
Large hail is the primary severe threat with storms that form across
the Dakotas into the Upper Red River Valley tonight.
Leading edge of large-scale forcing for ascent appears to be
spreading across WY this evening ahead of a short-wave trough. Over
the last half hour, or so, weak convection has begun to develop
across eastern WY into the northern Black Hills. This activity
should gradually increase in areal coverage over the next few hours
as updrafts encounter increasingly moist/buoyant airmass downstream.
00z sounding from UNR exhibits a profile favorable for supercells,
though currently capped around 780mb. Primary storm mode tonight
should be elevated convection, much of which could be supercellular
in nature. Increasing LLJ over the eastern Dakotas favors a
long-lived convective event along/north of the advancing warm front.
Downstream, isolated thunderstorms have recently developed over
southwestern MN within the warm advection zone. This activity may
struggle to attain sustained severe intensity and it likely a bit
elevated as well. Unless surface-based thunderstorms evolve across
the warm sector, and it appears less likely with time, hail remains
the primary threat.