Valid 280100Z – 281200Z
…THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
MO INTO NORTHERN IL…
…SUMMARY…
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to continue this evening
along a corridor from central Kansas into northwest Indiana. Large
hail and damaging winds are the primary threats, though a tornado or
two can not be ruled out.
…01z Update…
Scattered severe thunderstorms have recently erupted along a
pronounced frontal zone from central KS into northern MO. This
activity extends northeast ahead of the front within a zone of
strong low-level warm advection across northern IL into northwest
IN. Steep lapse rates are contributing to robust updrafts that are
efficient hail producers, as far east as northwest IL. Earlier
severe probs reasonably reflect ongoing severe situation, though
have opted to remove 10% Sig Hail as most stones should remain below
2″. Convective trends, along with fairly consistent CAMs, suggest a
fairly active zone of severe along this corridor through late
evening, possibly extending into the early morning hours. Otherwise,
earlier thoughts regarding this severe event continue.
..Darrow.. 09/28/2019
$$