Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 262000Z – 271200Z


Strong to marginally severe thunderstorm gusts remain possible this
afternoon over portions of southern New England and Long Island.

…Southern New England…

Line of shallow convection developing along a cold front has shown
recent intensification from near New York City through central CT.
This activity is embedded within moderate to strong southwesterly
deep layer winds and will remain capable of producing a few strong
wind gusts as it moves through the remainder of southern New England
this afternoon. Very weak instability will be a substantial limiting
factor for a more robust severe threat. See swomcd 2025 for more

..Dial.. 09/26/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019/

…Southern New England…
A strong and fast-moving shortwave trough over the Great Lakes
region will tracking into New England this afternoon and tonight.
The associated surface cold front currently extends from central NY
into central PA, and will be the focus for more organized showers
and thunderstorms. Model guidance continues to support a risk of a
fast-moving line of convection along the front affecting parts of
southern New England – mainly in the 20-01z period. It is unclear
how much lightning will be associated with this line. However,
forecast soundings indicate strong winds above the surface which may
translate to the surface in the more intense convective elements.
Generally clear skies in this area will result in steep low-level
lapse rates ahead of the convection, further increasing the odds of
a few strong/damaging wind gusts.

…Central/Northern NY into VT…
A few thunderstorm clusters are likely to affect this area this
afternoon as cold temperatures aloft and upper forcing overspread
the region. While organized severe storms are not anticipated, the
strongest cells may produce small hail and gusty winds.


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