Valid 261630Z – 271200Z
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND…
Damaging to marginally severe thunderstorm gusts are possible this
afternoon, over portions of southern New England and Long Island.
…Southern New England…
A strong and fast-moving shortwave trough over the Great Lakes
region will tracking into New England this afternoon and tonight.
The associated surface cold front currently extends from central NY
into central PA, and will be the focus for more organized showers
and thunderstorms. Model guidance continues to support a risk of a
fast-moving line of convection along the front affecting parts of
southern New England – mainly in the 20-01z period. It is unclear
how much lightning will be associated with this line. However,
forecast soundings indicate strong winds above the surface which may
translate to the surface in the more intense convective elements.
Generally clear skies in this area will result in steep low-level
lapse rates ahead of the convection, further increasing the odds of
a few strong/damaging wind gusts.
…Central/Northern NY into VT…
A few thunderstorm clusters are likely to affect this area this
afternoon as cold temperatures aloft and upper forcing overspread
the region. While organized severe storms are not anticipated, the
strongest cells may produce small hail and gusty winds.