Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 260100Z – 261200Z


Thunderstorms are expected to develop late tonight across northeast
Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas, which will pose a threat of
locally damaging winds and perhaps some hail. Isolated strong storms
also remain possible this evening across parts of Arizona and
southeastern California.

…Ozarks westward into KS/OK…
The ongoing cluster of thunderstorms across northeast AR may
continue to pose a threat of isolated damaging wind into mid evening
before weakening as MLCINH increases tonight. Meanwhile, farther
west, recent strong thunderstorm development near a remnant outflow
boundary across north-central OK will pose a short-term threat of
hail/wind — see MCD 2021 for more information.

More widespread thunderstorm development is expected later this
evening across northeast OK/southeast KS into the Ozark region of
MO/AR, as a southwesterly low-level jet becomes focused across this
region. MUCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg combined with effective shear
of 20-30 kt will support some storm organization. Initial multicell
development will pose a risk of marginal hail, with some upscale
growth and a corresponding isolated damaging wind threat potentially
evolving overnight. A slight risk has been added across northeast
OK/northwest AR due to increasing confidence in an upscale growing
cluster late tonight.

…Southeast CA into AZ…
As the upper low drifts very slowly northward in the vicinity of the
lower CO River valley, scattered thunderstorms will continue through
much of the evening across southeast CA into southern/central AZ.
Weak-to-moderate buoyancy (MUCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg) and modestly
enhanced effective shear to the north and east of the upper low will
support a few strong thunderstorms, with some threat for marginally
severe hail and/or isolated strong wind gusts lingering through much
of the evening.

..Dean.. 09/26/2019


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