Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 240100Z – 241200Z

…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST…

…SUMMARY…
Thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds will be possible
this evening across parts of the Desert Southwest.

…Desert Southwest…
The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low moving
southeastward across southern California. Mid-level flow is
west-southwesterly ahead of the upper-level low from northwestern
Mexico across Arizona into the Four Corners region. At the surface,
a low has been deepening across far southeastern California over the
last few hours. A moist airmass is in place to the east of the
surface low across southern and western Arizona where the RAP is
estimating MLCAPE values in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Scattered
thunderstorms are ongoing to the east of the instability maximum on
the nose of a pronounced dry slot. Steep low to mid-level lapse
rates associated with the dry slot and moderate to strong deep-layer
shear will be favorable for a severe threat across much of Arizona
this evening. Supercells with large hail will be possible. A wind
damage threat should also accompany the stronger thunderstorms. This
latter threat could increase if cells can congeal into a cold pool
over the next few hours.

..Broyles.. 09/24/2019

$$

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