Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 230100Z – 231200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARKS…

…SUMMARY…
Marginally severe wind gusts will be possible over the next few
hours this evening from central Oklahoma northeastward into central
Missouri.

…Southern Plains/Ozarks…
The latest water vapor imagery shows west southwesterly mid-level
flow over the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. At the
surface, a cold front is moving southeastward across central
Oklahoma and north-central Missouri. Thunderstorms are ongoing just
ahead of the front. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are
generally in the lower 70s F which is contributing to an axis of
moderate instability (MLCAPE 1000 to 1500 J/kg). This combined with
35 to 40 kt of 0-6 km shear evident on regional WSR-88D VWPs should
be sufficient for a marginal severe threat this evening with strong
wind gusts possible.

..Broyles.. 09/23/2019

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