Valid 190100Z – 191200Z
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER
MS VALLEY AND ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST…
A few strong storms are possible this evening from northern and
central Wisconsin into southeast Minnesota. A brief tornado or two
may be noted along the upper Texas Coast.
Have introduced low tornado probs to the upper Texas Coast in
association with Tropical Depression Imelda. Over the last few hours
a few low-topped supercells have periodically produced a few brief,
weak tornadoes. This activity has been confined primarily to the
southern-most sheared portion of Imelda where weak buoyancy has
proven adequate for sustained, robust updrafts. Given the extensive
precipitation observed east of the Sabine River, current thinking is
to confine tornado probs to the upper TX Coast.
00z sounding from MPX exhibits substantial MUCAPE with values in
excess of 3000 J/kg, although capped near 3km. Flow is gradually
veering across MN ahead of the front which should result in deep
convection evolving downstream across western WI/southeast MN.
Latest satellite imagery does not suggest this is imminent, but CAMs
collectively depict development within the next few hours. Will
maintain low severe probs for this scenario.