Valid 162000Z – 171200Z
…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…
…SUMMARY…
Severe risk appears likely to remain minimal today and tonight.
…Discussion…
No changes to the outlook are required at this time, as prior
reasoning and thunder areas continue to reflect the latest thinking.
While a briefly strong/possibly severe storm cannot be ruled out
over the Gulf Coast of Texas/Louisiana, parts of the West, including
Arizona, this afternoon, and over the Minnesota vicinity tonight,
risk appears too minimal in all areas to require addition of
probability area.
..Goss.. 09/16/2019
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019/
…Synopsis…
A deep midlevel trough, with associated cool midlevel temperatures
and steep lapse rates, will continue to progress inland over the
Pacific Coast today and the Great Basin tonight. Isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the
Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin as the trough moves eastward.
Elsewhere, multiple shortwave troughs will eject northeastward from
the southern Rockies into the northern Plains, resulting in the
potential for widely scattered thunderstorms from the High Plains
today into portions of the Dakotas/Minnesota late tonight. A weak
mid/upper-level trough over the northwestern Gulf will produce
widespread convection, with some of this activity spreading inland
into coastal portions of LA/TX later today and tonight.
While a few stronger storms cannot be ruled out across the Interior
Northwest/Great Basin into the Intermountain West, near the TX/LA
Gulf Coast, and also across the eastern Dakotas into MN late
tonight, the potential for severe thunderstorms is expected to
generally remain low through the period.
$$