Valid 161300Z – 171200Z
…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…
Severe storms are unlikely today and tonight.
A deep midlevel trough, with associated cool midlevel temperatures
and steep lapse rates, will continue to progress inland over the
Pacific Coast today and the Great Basin tonight. A few low-topped
thunderstorms will be possible the first part of the day along the
cold front in northeast CA, while occasional storms will spread
inland across OR to northwest NV by this evening. Farther south and
east, the cold front will cross NV this evening and reach UT
tonight. The monsoonal moisture plume will likely remain east of
the front and associated ascent, which casts substantial doubt on
the potential for thunderstorms along the front tonight.
In response to the Pacific Coast trough, a weakening subtropical
shortwave trough over NM/CO will eject northeastward toward the
eastern Dakotas/MN and could support some elevated convection near
the end of the forecast period. Scattered thunderstorms are likely
through tonight near the northwest Gulf coast with a weak tropical
disturbance. The convection should spread inland this afternoon
with outflows, and then consolidate tonight near the middle and
upper TX coast.