Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 151630Z – 161200Z


Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the
contiguous U.S. today.

…Far southeast AZ and southwest NM…
A couple stronger storms are possible near the southeast
AZ/southwest NM/international border area to the south of a
low-amplitude shortwave impulse slowly moving from the Mogollon Rim
to the southern Rockies. Pockets of greater insolation should be
confined to the international border with abundant cloud
coverage/remnant stratiform rain farther north closer to the
shortwave impulse. Scattered thunderstorms will develop later this
afternoon as destabilization occurs within the cloud breaks.
Moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg in conjunction with
effective shear around 25 kt may support a couple updrafts
possessing weak/transient mid-level rotation. Amid modest mid-level
lapse rates, this setup would most likely yield small hail and
locally strong gusts. Overall threat appears too limited to warrant
a severe risk area.

..Grams/Karstens.. 09/15/2019


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