Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 080100Z – 081200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST…AND PORTIONS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY…

…SUMMARY…
A few storms capable of producing hail and damaging winds are
expected this evening over parts of the mid Missouri Valley area,
and near the northern Cascades.

…Pacific Northwest…
Isolated thunderstorms have developed early this evening over the
higher terrain of the Cascades, where modest instability and ample
shear continue to suggest potential for organized updrafts. A
couple of the stronger cells will be capable of producing hail
and/or damaging winds over the next few hours. For additional
short-term information, please refer to SWOMCD #1937.

…Mid Missouri Valley region…
Diurnal thunderstorms have diminished across Nebraska, while a weak
cluster of convection still producing lightning continues advancing
across central Kansas. As a low-level jet increases over the next
few hours, warm-advection-driven ascent should result in new storm
development near and north of the boundary — which currently
extends northwest to southeast across central and eastern Kansas and
into west-central and southern Missouri.

With a plume of amply steep mid-level lapse rates across the area
contributing to moderate CAPE through the cloud-bearing layer, and
modest westerly flow atop low-level southwesterlies, resulting
deep-layer shear will support some potential for organized storms —
and possibly upscale growth into an eastward-moving MCS. Some risk
for gusty/locally damaging winds will exist near the front, while
hail will also be possible — especially before an upscale
convective evolution occurs.

..Goss.. 09/08/2019

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