Valid 072000Z – 081200Z
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHERN CASCADES…
Isolated severe wind and hail will remain possible today from
thunderstorms over parts of the central Plains, and near the
No changes have been made to the Marginal Risk areas across the
central Plains and Pacific Northwest.
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2019/
A well-defined shortwave trough is moving quickly eastward today
across eastern MT/WY. This feature will help to initiate scattered
thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening from parts of
eastern CO and western KS into portions of SD/NE/MO/IA. Low-level
winds are forecast to be relatively weak across the central Plains,
limiting overall convective organization. However, multiple remnant
surface boundaries should be sufficient for a few clusters of
multicell and occasional supercell storms through the evening.
Forecast soundings suggest a risk of isolated strong/severe storms
capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail. Given the weak low-level
winds and expectation of rather disorganized convective, will
maintain the ongoing MRGL risk with only minor changes.
A rather deep upper trough is approaching the OR/CA coast today.
Strengthening wind fields and cooling aloft will aid initiation of
scattered thunderstorms over central OR/WA along and east of the
Cascades. Organized severe storms are not expected. However, the
strongest cells could result in gusty winds and hail for a few hours
this afternoon and evening.