Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 052000Z – 061200Z


Tornadoes are possible across eastern North Carolina and southeast
Virginia through tonight in association with Hurricane Dorian.

The current outlook areas and reasoning continue to reflect the
ongoing convective scenario across the U.S., with few changes
necessary at this time. Minor adjustments are being made to the
risk areas over the Carolinas, to reflect minor progression of
Dorian since the prior outlook issuance. Otherwise, no substantive
changes appear necessary at this time.

..Goss.. 09/05/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2019/

…Eastern North Carolina/southeast Virginia…
After an active morning for rotating storms/tornadoes across coastal
North Carolina, tornado potential will continue and gradually
transition north-northeastward this afternoon through tonight in
association with a strengthening/spatially transitioning low-level
flow field on the periphery of Hurricane Dorian. This tornado threat
should also develop northward into coastal southeast Virginia by

…Oregon and northern portions of California/Nevada…
As early-morning cloud cover quickly thins/moves out of the region,
a plume of MLCAPE from 500-1000 J/kg is expected by peak heating,
particularly across west-central/southern Oregon. An approaching
shortwave trough off the northern California coast should support
late afternoon thunderstorm development over the Cascades and Sierra
Nevada. A deeply mixed and steep low/mid-level lapse rate
environment coupled with 30-40 kt effective shear should support
isolated severe wind and hail, particularly across Oregon. Some
severe-caliber thunderstorm-related wind gusts may occur as far
east/southeast as Nevada.

…Upper Midwest…
Associated with a fast-moving clipper-type shortwave trough, a few
severe storms will remain possible today from eastern Minnesota
across northern Wisconsin and parts of the Upper Peninsula of
Michigan. Severe hail is the most probable severe risk.


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