Valid 050100Z – 051200Z
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL AREAS…
…SUMMARY…
The potential for a couple of tornadoes may increase late tonight
near northeastern South Carolina and southern North Carolina coastal
areas.
…01Z Outlook Update…
…South Atlantic Coast…
At least some evaporative cooling, within steady convective
precipitation to the north and west of the center of Dorian, is
maintaining a relatively cool and stable (as suggested by latest
observational data and objective analysis) boundary layer across
much of South Carolina and Georgia coastal areas and offshore
waters. Based on the expected slow north-northeastward motion of
Dorian, there might not be much change overnight. However, toward
12Z, near surface flow may gradually take on a more substantive
easterly component (as opposed to northeasterly) near northeastern
South Carolina/southern North Carolina coastal areas, accompanied by
an influx of tropical boundary layer air (including mid/upper 70s
surface dew points ) which could become more conducive to tornado
potential in the presence of enlarging low-level hodographs
(becoming characterized by strong to extreme shear).
…Northern Plains…
A low amplitude short wave trough over southern Saskatchewan is
forecast to turn eastward and southeastward across into the eastern
North Dakota/Minnesota international border area by daybreak.
Models suggest that this may be accompanied by a zone of
strengthening lower/mid tropospheric warm advection across parts of
eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota by 06-08Z, with
CAPE for moistening parcels rooted within this layer increasing in
excess of 1000 J/kg. Coupled with moderately strong, unidirectional
shear within the convective layer, the environment could become
conducive storms posing at least some risk for severe hail.
..Kerr.. 09/05/2019
$$