Valid 030100Z – 031200Z
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA…
Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across
parts of southern Kansas into central Oklahoma, and over parts of
eastern Idaho to western/central Montana.
…Southern KS into central OK…
A moist and unstable air mass developed across the region during the
day despite areas of high cloud cover, though this has aided
capping. Recent GPS precipitable water measurements are approaching
2.00″ along and east of I-35 in KS and OK, and the 00Z OUN sounding
shows MLCAPE approaching 2000 J/kg with around 100 J/kg MLCIN.
Storms are expected to form in the ICT-SWO area around 03Z, in the
zone of warm advection just above the surface, and will likely
expand southward overnight. Marginal hail is possible initially
where surface temperatures are cooler across KS and northeast OK,
with locally strong to severe wind gusts possible as storms
propagate into the warmer air mass over central OK.
Scattered high-based storms from central ID into western MT persist
this evening, with some capable of small hail and gusty winds. While
a gradual decrease in coverage and intensity is expected through the
evening with the loss of heating, marginal hail or wind remains
possible until then. For more information see mesoscale discussion