Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 040100Z – 041200Z


Isolated severe thunderstorms may still occur this evening across
parts of the Great Lakes and Midwest. Large hail and damaging winds
remain possible.

…Midwest/Great Lakes…
Isolated convection along/ahead of a surface cold front has
struggled to intensify early this evening in the wake of earlier
storms that moved over the Midwest and Great Lakes. A strongly
sheared environment remains present across region owing to a
pronounced shortwave trough moving eastward. But, only a narrow
corridor of weak to moderate instability has developed ahead of the
surface front. There still appears to be some potential for storms
to increase in coverage and intensity this evening across parts of
southern Lower MI, northeastern IL, northern IN, and northwestern
OH. The Slight Risk has been generally confined to this area, where
a relatively better chance for isolated large hail and strong to
locally damaging winds exists. The tornado threat should continue to
decrease this evening as low-level flow continues to veer, reducing
hodograph size and effective SRH. The overall severe threat will
likely wane with eastward extent tonight as the boundary layer
continues to slowly stabilize.

Hurricane Dorian is expected to continue moving northwest tonight
into early Wednesday based on the most recent National Hurricane
Center forecast. This will keep the east coast of the FL Peninsula
in the typically unfavorable western periphery of Dorian’s
circulation. Still, some enlargement to the low-level hodograph
combined with weak instability might support a couple of shallow
rotating cells capable of a brief tornado through tonight.

…Deep South Texas…
Tropical Storm Fernand will continue to slowly approach the coast of
northeastern Mexico overnight per the latest forecast from the
National Hurricane Center. A gradual strengthening of low-level
easterly flow on its northern periphery could support isolated
low-topped supercell potential and possibly a brief tornado across
parts of deep south TX through the overnight hours.

..Gleason.. 09/04/2019


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