Valid 311300Z – 011200Z
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN/EASTERN
KY TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WV…
Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts
of the Ohio Valley to central Applachians between 2 to 8 PM EDT.
…OH Valley to central Appalachians…
Robust boundary-layer heating near a weakly convergent
quasi-stationary front, ahead of a decaying mid-level impulse,
should aid in isolated thunderstorms forming by mid afternoon. A
confined corridor of modest buoyancy should develop, characterized
by MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. While low-level winds will be weak, a
belt of 25-30 kt 500-mb southwesterlies should support transient
updraft rotation in a few cells. This may yield locally strong wind
gusts along with marginally severe hail.