Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 300100Z – 301200Z


Severe storms with hail and wind damage will be possible this
evening from parts of northwest Kansas into west-central Missouri. A
few marginally severe storms may also occur across parts of lower

….Central and Southern Plains/Lower Missouri Valley…
The latest water vapor imagery shows west-northwest mid-level flow
over the northern and central U.S. with a minor shortwave trough
over the central High Plains. Strong to severe thunderstorms have
developed ahead of this feature and are moving southeastward across
parts of western Kansas. This activity is located along the western
edge of a maximum of strong instability with MLCAPE values in the
3000 to 5000 J/kg range estimated by the RAP. In addition, steep
lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear should be sufficient for
continued supercell development but a transition to a more linear
convective system should occur with time this evening. Isolated
large hail and wind damage will be possible.

Further to the east, a cluster of strong thunderstorms is ongoing
along the eastern edge of the strongest instability in northern and
central Missouri. According to the RAP, MLCAPE values in northern
and central Missouri are estimated in the 3000 to 4500 J/kg range
and 0-6 km shear values are near 35 kt. This environment should
support an isolated severe threat for several more hours. A severe
threat with an enhanced wind damage potential could also develop
from north-central Kansas into far western Missouri later this
evening as MCS development takes place. This MCS is forecast to move
southward across parts of central and eastern Kansas into northern
Oklahoma later tonight suggesting a marginal wind damage threat will
be possible through late in the period.

…Lower Michigan…
The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough moving
through the western Great Lakes. A line of thunderstorms has formed
in a zone of large-scale ascent along a pre-frontal trough across
south-central Lower Michigan. Surface dewpoints along the
pre-frontal trough are near 60 F which is resulting in weak
instability. This combined with 50 kt of deep-layer shear, evident
on the Detroit WSR-88D VWP, should be enough for marginally severe
wind gusts and hail for another hour or two this evening.

..Broyles.. 08/30/2019


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