Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 290100Z – 291200Z


Thunderstorm development, some having strong wind gusts, will
continue to take place this evening into the overnight period in the
lower Mississippi Valley, northeast Texas Panhandle and in the
Desert Southwest.

…Northeast Texas Panhandle/Northwest Oklahoma…
The latest 500 mb heights and vorticity analyzed by the RAP shows a
vorticity maximum near the Oklahoma Panhandle. Isolated thunderstorm
development has occurred over the last hour over the northeastern
Texas Panhandle just ahead of the vort max where large-scale ascent
is maximized. Although the environment has been supportive of a
marginal severe threat due to MLCAPE estimated near 2500 J/kg and
0-6 km shear near 40 kt, the cell that was previously severe has
weakened significantly over the last 15-20 minutes. This trend is
expected to continue this evening and there will be no need to add a
marginal risk area for this outlook.

..Broyles.. 08/29/2019


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