Valid 282000Z – 291200Z
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening over
northeast New Mexico.
No appreciable changes are warranted to 1630z outlook.
Isolated deep convection is beginning to develop over the higher
terrain of northeast NM (Colfax/Mora Counties). This activity is
expected to gradually mature over the next few hours with some
threat for isolated wind/hail.
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2019/
Through the afternoon, breaks in low-level cloud cover and continued
surface heating will allow for convective temperatures to be reached
by around 20-21Z or so in the immediate lee of central NM higher
terrain. This will result in an environment with steep tropospheric
lapse rates and modest (20-25 kt) northwesterly mid-level flow atop
weak (10-15 kt) low-level southerly flow. Storms that develop in
this environment may exhibit weak supercellular characteristics
while drifting southward in and near the MRGL area through the
afternoon. Isolated instances of large hail and damaging wind gusts
will be likely with this diurnally driven activity, and the overall
severe risk should wane through the early overnight hours.