Valid 281630Z – 291200Z
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible between 3 to 8 PM MDT
over northeast New Mexico.
Through the afternoon, breaks in low-level cloud cover and continued
surface heating will allow for convective temperatures to be reached
by around 20-21Z or so in the immediate lee of central NM higher
terrain. This will result in an environment with steep tropospheric
lapse rates and modest (20-25 kt) northwesterly mid-level flow atop
weak (10-15 kt) low-level southerly flow. Storms that develop in
this environment may exhibit weak supercellular characteristics
while drifting southward in and near the MRGL area through the
afternoon. Isolated instances of large hail and damaging wind gusts
will be likely with this diurnally driven activity, and the overall
severe risk should wane through the early overnight hours.