Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 280100Z – 281200Z


The severe thunderstorm threat is expected to generally remain low
across the U.S. through the rest of tonight, though very isolated
strong thunderstorms will be possible across portions of west Texas
through mid-evening.

…West TX…
A very isolated strong thunderstorm cluster southwest of Midland may
persist for awhile this evening, driven by strong instability
(MLCAPE greater than 3500 J/kg on 00Z MAF sounding) and marginally
supportive deep-layer shear. Hail and/or locally severe wind gusts
will be possible with this cluster as long as it remains intense,
but the coverage and duration of the severe threat is expected to
remain too limited to maintain severe probabilities in this area.
See MCD 1882 for more information.

Thunderstorm clusters that earlier produced wind damage over
portions of AL should continue to weaken with time this evening,
with the onset boundary-layer stabilization. Any remaining wind risk
is expected to largely diminish by 02Z.

..Dean.. 08/28/2019


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