Valid 270100Z – 271200Z
…THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST
OK AND A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO/NORTHWEST AR…
…SUMMARY…
Thunderstorms capable of damaging wind and some hail are possible
into the late evening from central Oklahoma northeastward into
portions of southeast Kansas, southern Missouri, and northwest
Arkansas.
…OK…Southeast KS…Northwest AR…central/southern MO…
Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase through the evening
from OK northeastward into southeast KS/southern MO. There is a
narrow window of potential for surface-based convection through
around 03Z across northern OK/southeast KS, with an increasing
tendency for storms to become elevated by late tonight, as a cold
front continues southward through the region. With strong buoyancy
and sufficient effective shear, ongoing surface-based development
will include the potential for at least transient supercell
structures, with an attendant risk of severe wind gusts, hail, and
perhaps a brief tornado. See MCD 1873 for more information.
Otherwise, one or more thunderstorm clusters will likely evolve with
time. Any upscale growth would be accompanied by a continued risk of
severe wind gusts, with the greatest relative risk expected over
northeast OK/far southeast KS/far southwest MO, where the best
overlap of instability/shear is expected through the evening. Some
threat may spread eastward into south-central/southeast MO, though
only partial airmass recovery is expected in the wake of earlier
convection before the next round of storms moves through this area.
..Dean.. 08/27/2019
$$