Valid 250100Z – 251200Z
…THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHERN OK…
The greatest severe-storm threat this evening into tonight is from
central and western Kansas into northern Oklahoma, with severe wind,
damaging hail and a few tornadoes possible.
…KS and OK vicinity this evening and tonight…
A mid-level low/shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery this
evening will slowly move eastward across KS through early Sunday
morning. An associated mid-level cold pocket and a moist boundary
layer has resulted in a moderate buoyancy (1500 J/kg MLCAPE) per the
Dodge City evening raob. Models show storm development to increase
primarily after sunset across western/central KS as a southerly LLJ
strengthens. Upscale growth into an eventual cluster or two is
expected over KS before moving southeast into OK late tonight into
early Sunday morning. Hail/wind will be the primary risks with the
activity this evening into the overnight hours.
…ND this evening…
A surface trough located near the ND/MT border is serving as a focus
for thunderstorm development this evening. Adequate instability
east of the surface trough may foster a couple of strong storms this
evening before gradual boundary layer stabilization limits overall
storm intensity by late evening.