Valid 240100Z – 241200Z
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE HIGH PLAINS…
Multiple clusters of storms will pose a damaging wind and hail
threat across parts of eastern Wyoming and Colorado into western
South Dakota, Nebraska and Kansas this evening. The severe threat
may extend as far south as the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity.
…VA and NC Vicinity…
The main change with the 01z update is to remove the Slight and
Marginal risk probabilities. Overall, the threat has greatly
diminished, and should continue to do so over the next couple of
hours as storms move offshore and as the boundary layer stabilizes
with loss of daytime heating. A couple of locally strong gusts will
remain possible over the next hour or so.
Only minor adjustments have been made to the Slight and Marginal
risk areas based on latest trends and ongoing convection. Isolated
large hail and strong, locally damaging wind gusts will be possible
through the evening, mainly from eastern WY southward through the
central High Plains into the TX Panhandle. A line of semi-discrete
storms is developing this evening across southwest KS in an area of
moist convergence along an outflow boundary along with an increasing
low level jet. This band of storms should persist for several more
hours this evening, posing a damaging wind threat across parts of
western KS and perhaps parts of the OK/TX Panhandles/northwest OK.
Additional clusters of storms across east-central and northeast CO
and eastern WY will shift eastward into northwest KS, western NE,
and southwest SD. With the strengthening low level jet now evident
in observations, these clusters also may grow upscale into bowing
segments, increasing damaging wind potential as they shift east
through the evening.