Valid 241300Z – 251200Z
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
Scattered severe storms, including the potential for hail/wind
damage along with a few tornadoes, are expected over the Mid-South,
Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians vicinity.
…Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to southern Appalachians…
Bands of elevated showers/thunderstorms are ongoing early this
morning across the Ozarks into much of Tennessee and northern
portions of Mississippi and Alabama. A low-amplitude shortwave
trough/mid-level speed max over the south-central Plains and Ozarks
early today will steadily progress eastward, reaching the Tennessee
Valley by early evening. In response to this feature, a weak surface
low will shift into Arkansas by early afternoon as the frontal zone
that is currently draped across the central Gulf States lifts north
toward the Tennessee border. This surface low will then track along
the wind shift into middle Tennessee by early evening.
Diurnal heating will be maximized ahead of the surface low across
Arkansas where low-level flow should veer and surface temperatures
should reach convective temperatures by mid-afternoon. Surface-based
supercells are expected to initially develop across eastern Arkansas
into western Tennessee/northern Mississippi within the warm sector
and near the warm front. This activity will develop within strong
deep-layer shear, but low-level shear is not forecast to be
particularly strong initially given the southwesterly surface winds.
The surface-based nature of these storms suggests all hazards are
possible, including a few tornadoes. Hail will be the primary risk
north of the warm front.
While exact later-day positioning of the warm front is a bit
uncertain, there is concern that a somewhat more focused/heightened
supercell and tornado potential could materialize across portions of
Middle Tennessee and northern Alabama in vicinity of the surface
triple point. Near the modestly deepening surface low/warm front,
low-level shear/SRH will be maximized with an enlargement of
hodographs expected toward sunset. Portions of Middle Tennessee and
northern Alabama will be reevaluated later today for the possibility
of a higher risk category (Enhanced).