Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 241200Z – 251200Z

…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-SOUTH
TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS…

…SUMMARY…
Scattered severe storms — including potential for hail/wind damage,
and a few tornadoes — will be possible over the Mid South/Tennessee
Valley/Southern Appalachians vicinity.

…Discussion…

Strong mid-level speed max over the southern Plains is forecast to
translate into AR by the start of the period, then into the TN
Valley during the day, before stronger flow digs into central MS by
25/00z. In response to this feature, a weak surface low will shift
into AR by early afternoon as the frontal zone that is currently
draped across the central Gulf States begins to lift north to near
the TN border. This boundary should advance another 100mi or so
before stalling across the TN Valley. Aforementioned surface low
will then track along the wind shift into middle TN by early
evening.

Early this morning, scattered thunderstorms were spreading across KS
in association with the mid-level speed max. This activity should
propagate into southeast KS/northwest AR by sunrise but new
thunderstorm clusters are expected to evolve along/north of the
advancing warm front downstream into western TN during the morning.
Some of this activity could generate hail early in the convective
cycle when updrafts will be primarily rooted atop the cooler
boundary layer. However, diurnal heating will be maximized ahead of
the surface low across AR where low-level flow should veer and
surface temperatures should reach convective temperatures by mid
afternoon. At that time surface-based supercells are expected to
evolve across the warm sector and near the warm front. This activity
will develop within strong deep-layer shear, but low-level shear is
not forecast to be particularly strong given the southwesterly
surface winds (although locally stronger in the vicinity of the warm
front). Given these conditions, supercells are expected across the
warm sector, especially along a corridor from northern MS into
northern AL and adjacent regions of southern TN. Surface-based
nature of these storms suggests all hazards are possible, including
a few tornadoes. Hail will be the primary risk north of the
boundary.

..Darrow/Squitieri.. 03/24/2020

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