Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 231300Z – 241200Z


Storms capable of large hail are expected over parts of Kansas,
Oklahoma, southern Missouri, and Arkansas tonight along with a few
strong wind gusts. Isolated strong storms are also possible during
the day from Alabama into Georgia.

…Kansas/Oklahoma/eastern Colorado to Ozarks…
A nearly zonal belt of southern-stream westerlies will develop
eastward across the southern tier of the CONUS, with an embedded
shortwave trough and mid-level speed max (90 kt at 500 mb)
advancing from southern California toward the Four Corners area by
early evening, and Oklahoma/Kansas late tonight. In response, lee
cyclogenesis is expected across the south-central High Plains with
modest low-level moisture drawn north-northwestward to the east of a
surface trough/dryline.

Current indications are that areas with somewhat higher moisture
content and supercell-favorable parameter space, such as the Texas
Panhandle, will likely remain capped even with ample afternoon
heating. Farther north, initial storm development is expected across
eastern Colorado and western Kansas as early as late afternoon/early
evening. Storms will likely persist and expand in coverage while
developing south-southeastward tonight particularly across Kansas
and northern Oklahoma with aid of an increasing low-level jet and
related warm/moist advection. Isolated instances of large hail
should be the main risk given the elevated nature of the storms, but
localized severe-caliber wind gusts could occur as well.

…Southeast States…
Bands of elevated convection will continue east-southeastward early
today across northern portions of Mississippi/Alabama and Georgia.
To the south of this convection, clouds are prevalent early today,
but gradual afternoon heating/destabilization is expected to occur
across south-central portions of Alabama and Georgia near/south of a
front. Lapse rates across this region will not be particularly
steep, but high-level flow is strong enough to warrant some
organizational potential which could yield isolated wind reports
later this afternoon.

..Guyer/Leitman.. 03/23/2020


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