Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 231200Z – 241200Z


Large hail appears likely Monday night over parts of Kansas,
Oklahoma, southern Missouri, and Arkansas along with a few strong
wind gusts. Isolated strong storms are also possible during the day
from Alabama into Georgia.


Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper trough off
the southern CA Coast, shifting inland in line with latest model
guidance. This feature is forecast to eject across the Four-Corners
by 24/00z as 90kt 500mb speed max translates into the southern
Rockies before reaching the TX Panhandle by midnight. In response to
this short wave, surface front that is draped across southeast TX
will return north across the southern Plains as lee surface low gets
dislodged into the OK Panhandle. While strong boundary-layer heating
is forecast across eastern NM/west TX, forecast soundings are quite
dry west of 100 longitude. As a result, additional moistening,
beyond peak heating, will be necessary for convective development.
Latest guidance suggests LLJ will increase after dark across western
OK into southwestern KS. This should aid thunderstorm development
after 03z within exit region of approaching speed max. Initial
convection will likely evolve across eastern CO/western KS then
spread/develop east during the overnight hours north of the
advancing warm front. Vertical wind profiles favor supercells and
forecast soundings strongly suggest this activity will be mostly
elevated. Large hail is the primary risk as this activity spreads
toward southwest MO/western AR.


Low-level warm advection and weak frontal convergence will be the
primary forcing mechanisms for convection across the southeastern
states today. Early this morning, scattered thunderstorms have
developed along a corridor from northern LA-southeastern AR-northern
MS-middle TN. This activity is forecast to gradually sag southeast
during the pre-dawn hours as higher-PW air mass is shunted to lower
latitudes as westerly flow aloft deepens. Lapse rates across this
region are not particularly steep but high-level flow is strong
enough to warrant some organizational potential which could generate
isolated wind reports.

..Darrow/Squitieri.. 03/23/2020


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