Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 230100Z – 231200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
COASTAL CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CA…

…SUMMARY…
Isolated strong storms remain possible over parts of coastal
central/southern California this evening. Gusty winds are the
primary threat.

…CA…

00z soundings from OAK/VBG exhibit surface-based buoyancy where
temperatures have risen into the lower 60s. While significant
clouds/precip have cooled some areas into the 50s, a pocket of
yet-to-be overturned instability extends ahead of the upper low into
coastal southern CA. Latest radar data suggests a few robust storms
may move inland across Santa Barbara County over the next hour or
so. For these reasons will maintain 5% severe probabilities for
primarily wind.

…Central Plains…

Lone, long-lived supercell is progressing southeast across western
KS and has produced hail at times. 00z sounding from DDC suggests
this storm will weaken quickly with loss of daytime heating as
boundary-layer cooling should result in decoupling of limited
moisture source.

…Southeast…

Scattered weak showers currently extend along/north of an arcing
frontal zone from southeast TX-northern LA-northern MS-middle TN.
00z sounding from SHV exhibits appreciable MUCAPE with >600 J/kg if
lifting a parcel from near 900mb. Weak warm advection along southern
fringe of progressive short-wave trough should aid deeper convection
later tonight. This activity should remain primarily sub-severe.

..Darrow.. 03/23/2020

$$

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