Valid 221200Z – 231200Z
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
Isolated strong storms may produce gusty winds over parts of coastal
central California this afternoon and evening. Isolated storms are
expected during the afternoon over Nebraska, with a large area of
general thunderstorms over much of the Southeast.
…Coastal Central California…
Upper low off the central CA Coast is forecast to move onshore
around 23/06z as 500mb speed max approaches the southern CA Coast,
then strengthens across southern AZ during the overnight hours. With
mid-level temperatures cooling to near -24C, surface parcels should
become buoyant as temperatures warm into the upper 50s-60F near the
Coast. Veering wind profiles through the cloud-bearing layer
suggests some convective organization is possible. Latest CAMs
continue to support the idea of organized scattered
showers/thunderstorms spreading inland ahead of the trough between
21-03z. Gusty winds are the primary threat with this activity.
Weak buoyancy will develop across the central Plains as surface
temperatures warm into the 50s from western KS into central NE. Most
convection will struggle to produce lightning, but a few flashes are
possible with the strongest updrafts.
Short-wave trough is forecast to eject across the Mid-South/TN
Valley during the day with strongest mid-level flow expected to
remain well north of appreciable instability. Forecast data suggests
60F surface dew points will advance north across much of LA and
southern MS/AL but buoyancy will remain weak along with low-level
convergence. Primary risk for thunderstorms will be ahead of the
short wave where instability should be limited.