Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 211200Z – 221200Z

…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
Severe thunderstorm threat is low across the United States today.

…Discussion…

Short-wave trough off the Baja Peninsula is forecast to eject into
the southern Rockies by late afternoon. In response to this feature,
LLJ will increase across the lower Rio Grande Valley into the TX
South Plains which will encourage a plume of higher-PW air to surge
north atop cooler boundary layer that is currently wedged over
central TX. Early this morning, well-defined front is draped across
southern LA-extending southwest off the TX Coast. Weak convection,
with some lightning, persists along the cool side of this boundary
and should begin to gradually lift north and expand in areal
coverage as LLJ strengthens. Warm advection will be the primary
forcing mechanism for much of the southern-Plains convection through
the period. Forecast soundings suggest parcels will be lifted
primarily above 850mb, though modest MUCAPE across south-central TX
could support a few robust updrafts capable of generating small
hail.

Farther inland across the Great Basin, cooling mid-level
temperatures and steepening lapse rates favor weak buoyancy by
afternoon north of the main jet. While profiles will be relatively
cool, forecast soundings suggest adequate CAPE above -20C which
should support lightning discharge in stronger updrafts.

..Darrow/Squitieri.. 03/21/2020

$$

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