Valid 200100Z – 201200Z
…THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION…
Severe thunderstorm risk continues tonight over a broad part of the
central U.S., with the greatest threats over parts of southern
Iowa/northern Missouri, and from parts of the Ozarks to the lower
Exit region of mid-level jet is beginning to affect northern
MO/southern IA. This should aid the maturation of convection
along/south of the cold front draped across this region. DVN
sounding was not particularly buoyant this evening so the greatest
risk should remain along the northeastern plume of steepest
low-level lapse rates, currently expressed by the ENH Risk.
Farther south, convection has gradually evolved along the
southwest/northeast-oriented boundary extending from central
TX-southeast OK-northwestern AR-southern MO. Several long-lived
supercells are currently noted across northwestern AR, and this
activity is expected to spread downstream and remain within a
strongly sheared, and modestly buoyant air mass. Will maintain ENH
Risk into the lower OH Valley to account for greater tornado threat
with these more discrete storms.
Strong thunderstorms are expected to gradually increase in areal
coverage as they spread/develop northeast into south-central TX.
This activity has some potential to produce gusty winds and hail.